What does hindsight bias refer to?

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency of individuals to believe, after an event has occurred, that they would have predicted or expected the outcome beforehand. This phenomenon can lead to an exaggerated sense of the predictability of events, making it seem as though they were obvious or foreseen in advance, even when they were not. This cognitive bias can affect judgment and decision-making, as people might overlook the factors and uncertainties that were present prior to the outcome.

In the context of the other options, the beliefs surrounding a just world, overestimation of control, and evaluation of familiar stimuli do not directly relate to the core concept of hindsight bias. While these may describe other psychological phenomena or biases, they are not specific to the distorted perception of predictability associated with hindsight bias. Thus, this understanding solidifies why "exaggerating the ability to have predicted an outcome" accurately captures the essence of hindsight bias.